Florida’s COVID-19 Trajectory: A Comprehensive Look at Policy Shifts, Public Health Outcomes, and Political Dynamics Under Governor DeSantis

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Florida’s COVID-19 Trajectory: A Comprehensive Look at Policy Shifts, Public Health Outcomes, and Political Dynamics Under Governor DeSantis
COVID-19 pandemic state responses
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | University of Pittsburgh at Bradford, Photo by pitt.edu, is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0

Man, remembering back to when COVID-19 first hit, it was chaos everywhere in the U.S., with every state scrambling to figure out their own way through the mess, and honestly, it often felt less like one nation pulling together and more like a bunch of separate countries experimenting on the fly with lives on the line. Florida, under Governor Ron DeSantis, really carved out its own lane in this wild landscape, kicking off with a bunch of careful, science-backed steps that looked a lot like what everyone else was doing, but then gradually steering toward this big emphasis on staying open, personal freedoms, and pushing back against what he saw as over-the-top federal controls. DeSantis didn’t just manage the crisis; he turned Florida’s whole approach into the centerpiece of his presidential campaign, constantly repeating how the state dodged the bullet on those endless lockdowns that he blames for crushing economies and spirits in places like New York or California. He’d contrast Florida’s “keep it running” vibe with the stricter shutdowns elsewhere, vowing to “make America Florida” the next time something like this rolls around, meaning no more bureaucrats dictating closures or mandates. But if you peel back the layers, it’s a complicated tale early wins in shielding the elderly and ramping up tests gave way to later policies that prioritized choice, and while adjusted data shows Florida holding up decently given its super-old population and health challenges, there’s real concern now about folks skipping vaccines and whether the state is set up well for future threats. It’s all intertwined with politics, sure, but at its core, this is about everyday people, families, workers, seniors trying to get through uncertainty, with leaders’ calls echoing in hospitals, schools, and dinner table talks.

  • Campaign Foundation: DeSantis hammered home how Florida skipped heavy restrictions, saying it saved jobs and sanity better than lockdown-heavy spots.
  • Political Contrast: He bashed federal overreach, winning over folks tired of being told what to do.
  • Outcome Claims: His success stories need tweaks for age and stuff to hold up fairly.
  • Public Reception: It fired up his base but had doctors shaking their heads over risks.
  • Future Pledge: Swore to block any national lockdowns, keeping freedom first.
  • Media Amplification: Kept popping up in debates and interviews, making COVID his signature issue.

Looking back on Florida’s pandemic rollercoaster, it starts with that initial panic where quick, tough actions bought precious time and saved lives in vulnerable spots, then morphs into this bold stand for letting people decide their own risks, with surprisingly many residents hanging onto safety habits out of their own caution long after the state said “all clear.” You see locals in communities, businesses, and even cities filling in where official rules stepped back, masking up or getting shots because it felt right for their situation, not because someone forced it. This mix of top-down shifts and bottom-up resilience paints a picture that’s messy but human science clashing with ideology, data getting spun in campaigns, but real outcomes shaped by a blend of policy, demographics, and plain old personal judgment. It’s a heck of a case study for anyone thinking about the next crisis, whether virus, hurricane, or whatever, reminding us that no single playbook fits all, and the best lessons come from owning the wins and the what-ifs to build something tougher next time.

1. Governor DeSantis’s Core Campaign Narrative: “Make America Florida”

You know, Ron DeSantis really leaned into Florida’s COVID experience like it was his golden ticket for the presidency, taking the stage over and over from those gritty Iowa state fairgrounds where folks munch on corn dogs and chat politics, to the bright lights of cable news interviews, all the way to the high-stakes Republican primary debates where every word gets dissected. His core message zeroed in on what Florida avoided: those drawn-out, economy-killing lockdowns that he says plagued other states and the federal response, insisting that by keeping things more open, Florida not only protected health but kept businesses alive and people from losing their minds in isolation. I remember that one debate clip where he fired up, asking why we’re still in this economic hole and pinning it squarely on the feds for locking everything down, calling it a massive error that never should’ve happened, then pivoting to how Florida stayed “free and open” and promising, hand on heart, that as president he’d stop any “deep state” from ever pulling that again. It all crystallized in his punchy slogan, “Florida got it right and the lockdown states got it wrong,” which wasn’t throwaway rhetoric but the foundation of his platform, designed to carve him out as the guy with a proven plan for crises less government meddling, more trust in individual choices, especially when it comes to health and daily life.

  • Platform Events: Hit up Iowa spots, cable news, and primary debates to spread the word far and wide.
  • Key Quote on Economy: Blasted federal lockdowns as a blunder that tanked jobs and lives.
  • Freedom Promise: Vowed to keep America unlocked and personal choices intact.
  • Slogan Origin: Straight-up comparison showing Florida’s lighter rules as the winner.
  • Differentiation Tactic: Pushed hard on individual rights to separate from the pack.
  • Electoral Appeal: Spoke to people fed up with rules, positioning himself as their guy.

At the end of the day, what DeSantis is selling with this narrative isn’t just a pat on the back for past decisions; it’s a full-on vision for handling any future nightmare, betting big that empowering people to make their own calls backed by early targeted protections beats blanket orders from on high every time. Sure, it lights a fire under supporters who felt suffocated by mandates and see him as the antidote to overreach, but critics point out it conveniently glosses over nuances like Florida’s unique demographics that demanded those initial strict moves to even stay in the game. Either way, by making this the heartbeat of his campaign long after most politicians wanted to forget COVID, he’s forcing a national conversation on liberty versus safety that feels raw and relevant, pulling in voters with stories of resilience while challenging everyone to think harder about governance in uncertain times.

people sitting on chair near building during daytime
Photo by Xavi Cabrera on Unsplash

2. Early Pandemic Response: Mandates and Public Health Measures

Look, no matter how much DeSantis later positioned himself as the anti-mandate warrior, those first frantic months of 2020 in Florida were all about playing it safe and aligning with the best advice floating around nationally, even cranking it up a notch in spots to head off disaster before it spiraled. The virus was this scary unknown, popping up in hotspots and spreading fast, so DeSantis wasted no time declaring a state of emergency ahead of the federal one, then moving quick to close public schools for the entire 2019-2020 year actually beating New York to the punch on that and layering on protections like beefed-up nursing home protocols to shield the elderly, exploding testing sites to track the beast, and slapping limits on gatherings to keep crowds from fueling fires. By late March, with images of spring breakers partying on beaches flashing everywhere, he shut those down too, closed nonessentials, and urged folks to stay “spiritually together but socially distant,” culminating in a full 30-day stay-at-home order on April 1 that mirrored the safer-at-home guidelines Trump had just extended. This wasn’t outlier stuff; it was Florida joining the pack of governors Republican, Democrat, didn’t matter in those white-knuckle early days when caution was the only tool we had against the invisible enemy.

  • Emergency Timing: Beat the feds to declare a state crisis, showing early vigilance.
  • School Closures: Locked down public schools for 2019-2020 sooner than many.
  • Business Shutdowns: Phased in with beaches first, then full nonessentials.
  • Nursing Home Steps: Rolled out tough protections for the vulnerable right away.
  • Gathering Limits: Curbed crowds and pushed distancing in messages.
  • Testing Expansion: Scaled up fast to catch and contain cases early.

Those opening gambits weren’t flashy, but they created a crucial firewall in a state buzzing with tourists and packed with retirees, buying time to learn more about the virus and prevent the kind of overwhelming surges that hit harder elsewhere without them. DeSantis might brush them aside now to bolster his freedom-first brand, but they highlight how adaptable leadership looks in real crises starting with the consensus science when stakes are sky-high, then evolving as data and confidence grow, without pretending one phase erases the other.

A healthcare professional tests blood sugar with a glucometer and lancet pen in a medical setting.
Photo by Artem Podrez on Pexels

3. The Lancet Study: A Nuanced View of Florida’s Performance

There’s this in-depth peer-reviewed piece in The Lancet that really breaks down state performances with hard data, and for Florida, it paints a picture of solid results once you make the fair adjustments for things like age and pre-existing conditions that stacked the deck against the state from the jump. Without those tweaks, the raw numbers are brutal Florida scraping the bottom quartile for deaths per capita and nearly the worst nationwide for total infections, no surprise given it’s got one of the oldest populations anywhere plus sky-high rates of stuff like cardiovascular disease, cancer, and chronic lung issues that turned COVID into a killer for so many. But factor in those biological and demographic realities for a true level playing field, and Florida vaults into the top quartile on deaths and cleans up nicely on infection control too. The real drivers of that adjusted success? Not the later openness DeSantis touts, but those aggressive early plays nursing home lockdowns tighter than most, testing rolled out at rates beating even blue-state governors, gathering restrictions that slowed spread fast, and a vaccination blitz for seniors that built habits sticking around post-mandates.

  • Demographic Factors: Packed with elderly and high rates of stuff like cancer or lung disease.
  • Unadjusted Rank: Low on deaths, near rock bottom for total infections.
  • Adjusted Rank: Jumped to high performers once biology’s accounted for.
  • Early Wins: Nursing safeguards, tests, and limits beat expectations.
  • Behavior Carryover: Folks stuck with precautions on their own later.
  • Study Caveat: Credit to start-up actions, not the open-later vibe.

Digging into this study feels like a reality check in a sea of political hot takes, underscoring that you can’t slap labels like “best” or “worst” on states without accounting for the hand they were dealt, and for Florida, those smart, timely interventions in the chaos were the unsung heroes keeping things from going off the rails. It nudges us toward more honest chats about what actually works in public health, blending data with context to move past slogans and honor the complexities of real-world crises.

4. The “Seniors First” Vaccination Campaign

As soon as those COVID vaccines started trickling in late 2020 and picking up steam into 2021, Governor DeSantis dove in headfirst with this “Seniors First” strategy that zeroed in on anyone over 65, pushing them to the front of the line even further than CDC guidelines suggested because, let’s face it, that’s the group that was getting hammered hardest in Florida’s retiree-heavy setup. He made a point to be front and center for the milestones joining that White House summit on vaccine authorizations, standing by as the very first dose went into a Tampa hospital worker’s arm and orchestrated a statewide rollout that got shots distributed efficiently across counties, even slipping in his own vaccination quietly by spring without fanfare. This wasn’t haphazard; it was a calculated priority to blunt the virus’s worst punches where they landed, and the numbers backed it up, with Florida leading the nation in early coverage for that age group and ramping up full two-dose series faster than populous states like California or New York during those supply-strapped opening weeks. It reflected a governor fully on board with the science of immunization when it came to the most at-risk, setting a proactive tone before the broader debates kicked in.

  • Priority Group: Jumped ages 65+ ahead, beyond what feds recommended.
  • Rollout Events: Showed up at summit and Tampa’s inaugural jab.
  • Coverage Speed: Faster two-doses for elders than NY or CA.
  • National Lead: Topped early senior vaccination charts.
  • Governor’s Action: Got vaccinated low-key amid the push.
  • Strategic Impact: Targeted the highest-risk to cut bad outcomes.

Focusing like a laser on seniors turned out to be a masterstroke in those critical early vaccine days, undoubtedly sparing countless severe cases and deaths in a demographic that made up so much of Florida’s vulnerability, and it stands as a testament to how tailoring efforts to your state’s realities can yield big payoffs. This chapter in the story shines as a straightforward success, one that likely eased pressures on hospitals and families alike, proving that even in a polarized time, targeted public health wins can cut through the noise.

5. The Pivotal Shift: Embracing “Medical Freedom” in Spring 2021

By the time spring rolled around in 2021, you could feel the winds changing in Florida’s COVID strategy as Governor DeSantis began highlighting “medical freedom” in just about every interview and public appearance, stepping back from the full-court press on vaccinations that marked earlier efforts and instead leaning into a framework where individual choice took center stage over collective mandates. This meant no more active promotion of booster shots or pushing vaccines for anyone under 50, appointing a surgeon general who was outspoken about cautioning against shots in younger age groups and kids, and as the federal public health emergency started winding down, signing off on legislation that outright banned government entities, businesses, and schools from requiring COVID testing, vaccinations, or masks for entry, employment, or pretty much anything. It extended even to future vaccines greenlit under emergency use, marking a clear philosophical break from the conventional approaches of the pandemic’s start toward one that trusted people to weigh their own risks without government nudging too hard.

  • Booster Stance: No cheerleading for extras or younger crowds.
  • Surgeon Pick: Chose someone cautious on youth vaccinations.
  • Mandate Ban: Covered all the big ones across the board.
  • Legislation Timing: Hit as national crisis mode ended.
  • Philosophy Core: All about personal say, less gov in health.
  • Broader Reach: Even for future emergency vaccines.

This embrace of medical freedom didn’t just alter day-to-day policies; it fundamentally recast Florida as the national poster child for prioritizing personal autonomy in health decisions, energizing those who felt mandates had gone too far while prompting health experts to warn about potential gaps in widespread protection that could haunt the state in lingering waves or new threats. The change rippled through society from parents debating school shots to employers navigating worker choices and locked in a legacy of limited intervention that appealed to liberty lovers but complicated efforts to maintain high vaccination levels across all groups. In retrospect, it was a defining pivot that highlighted the tensions between empowering individuals and safeguarding the community, setting the stage for ongoing debates that blend ideology with practical public health needs.

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Photo by Alexandra_Koch on Pixabay

6. The Delta Variant Surge: A Test of Policy Reversal

Summer 2021 hit Florida like a freight train with the Delta variant, more contagious and vicious, sending cases skyrocketing and hospitals in cities from Tampa to Orlando and North Broward into crisis mode, with CEOs reporting that 95% to 99% of their COVID patients were unvaccinated and ICUs overflowing to the point of turning people away or rationing care. Local leaders like Jacksonville’s mayor were out there pleading that vaccination was the clear path forward, as frontline stories of exhaustion and loss poured in amid the chaos. Yet, even with this pressure building, DeSantis held firm against reimposing any gathering restrictions or business shutdowns, instead closing state-run testing centers, dialing back the frequency of COVID and death reporting, and pushing through legislation that banned mandates for testing, vaccines, and masks right in the thick of it all while a handful of other Republican states at least toyed with renewed mitigations to ease the strain.

  • Hospital Crisis: Overwhelmed with unvaccinated patients dominating beds.
  • Case Surge: Huge jumps straining everything.
  • No Restrictions: Stuck to no bans on gatherings or biz.
  • Testing Changes: Closed sites, less frequent updates.
  • Legislative Move: Pushed bans during the worst.
  • Local Variations: Better in high-vax areas.

Facing down Delta without falling back on earlier tools was a true trial by fire for the evolving no-mandate stance, where the commitment to openness kept economic wheels turning and daily life feeling somewhat normal for many, but the surging hospitalizations and correlation with low vaccination in hard-hit spots laid bare the vulnerabilities of relying solely on voluntary actions during peaks. It wasn’t a uniform disaster counties like Miami-Dade with higher local uptake saw relatively milder impacts, illustrating how community-driven efforts could soften blows but overall, the episode served as a stark reminder of the trade-offs in crisis management, where ideological consistency meets real-world human suffering and forces tough questions about when to adapt. The lessons from this surge linger, offering insights into balancing freedoms with flexibility for whatever variant or challenge comes next.

7. Floridians’ Continued Protective Behaviors Amidst Policy Shifts

One of the most interesting twists in Florida’s pandemic saga is how, long after the state lifted most official mandates, a surprising number of residents kept right on with masking, cutting back on outings, and getting vaccinated at rates that punched above what the relaxed policies might suggest, creating this unexpected buffer of caution. The Lancet study spotlighted Florida as a standout here, ranking it middling on lockdown metrics like bar or restaurant closures and stay-home orders, and low on mask requirements overall, yet residents slashed their pre-pandemic mobility into the top quartile and maintained higher-than-expected adherence to safety measures even without enforcement. Much of this came from the ground up local businesses posting their own mask signs, schools and universities holding onto protocols for student safety, cities or counties adding extra layers where they saw fit fostering environments where responsible behavior felt like the norm rather than the exception.

  • Mobility Rank: Way up in staying put compared to before.
  • Mask/Vax Persistence: Hung on strong post-rules.
  • Local Roles: Shops and spots enforced their own safeguards.
  • Outlier Status: Good behaviors despite lax mandates.
  • Study Insight: Early scares built lasting caution.
  • Community Effect: People looked out for each other.

This persistent self-directed vigilance among Floridians acted as a quiet safety net, demonstrating how the fears and lessons from those intense early months embedded a sense of personal responsibility that didn’t evaporate just because the governor declared victory over restrictions. It was heartwarming to see communities stepping up neighbors checking on elderly folks, workplaces offering flexible options and it nuanced the entire “freedom” narrative by showing that choice doesn’t always mean recklessness when informed by experience. In many ways, this bottom-up approach provided resilience that top-down rules alone might not have sustained, highlighting the power of human adaptability and local initiative in navigating prolonged uncertainties.

girl getting vaccine
Photo by CDC on Unsplash

8. The Broader Implications of ‘Medical Freedom’ on Public Health

Governor DeSantis’s full-throated advocacy for ‘medical freedom,’ particularly when applied to younger populations and extending beyond COVID, has unleashed wider consequences for Florida’s public health framework, fostering a climate where skepticism toward vaccines and official guidance has taken root and begun eroding long-standing norms of collective protection. This shows most alarmingly in pediatric immunization exemptions, which surged between 2020 and 2022 to one of the biggest increases nationwide, even though Florida was already below average pre-pandemic, pushing kindergarten and seventh-grade vaccination rates to their lowest in a decade and raising flags about potential resurgences of diseases like measles or whooping cough. Adults followed suit in a different way, with seasonal flu vaccination rates dropping to around 40% buckling against a national trend that climbed near 50% during the heightened awareness of COVID years signaling a broader wariness spilling over from pandemic debates into routine health practices.

  • Pediatric Exemptions: Big national jump in waivers.
  • Kindergarten Lows: Hit rock bottom for required jabs.
  • Flu Rate Drop: Way below average.
  • Trust Erosion: Spills to all shots.
  • Youth Focus: Downplayed for young ones.
  • Long-Term Risk: Weaker shields for diseases.

While framing this as empowerment resonates with those valuing choice after feeling overruled, the declining trends across age groups and vaccine types point to a fragile public health infrastructure that’s more susceptible to outbreaks, demanding thoughtful strategies to restore confidence without alienating people further. It’s a delicate balance honoring individual rights while nudging toward communal benefits and the implications stretch far, potentially complicating responses to everything from annual flu seasons to emerging threats in a state as dynamic as Florida. Addressing this will require open dialogues, success stories, and perhaps policy tweaks to rebuild the trust that’s been strained.

person injecting someone on his arm
Photo by Hyttalo Souza on Unsplash

9. Declining Vaccination Rates and Future Preparedness Challenges

The ongoing dip in vaccination uptake across Florida, from childhood requirements to adult flu shots, isn’t merely a lingering COVID effect; it’s sounding alarms for the state’s ability to handle future health crises, especially in a place uniquely prone to climate-fueled issues like mosquito-borne illnesses that demand robust community immunity to keep in check. With pediatric exemptions climbing sharply and routine school shots hitting decade lows, plus adult flu rates lagging while the nation improved, these patterns create vulnerabilities where preventable diseases could gain footholds faster, spreading wider and hitting harder without the protective wall high vaccination provides. Florida’s warm, humid environment amplifies this recent local transmissions of malaria and dengue serve as wake-up calls that vector-borne threats are real and require everyone on board with prevention tools, including vaccines where available, to avoid escalating into larger public health headaches.

  • Climate Threats: Prone to local malaria, dengue.
  • Immunity Gaps: Holes let bugs run wild.
  • Routine Impacts: Kids and flu suffering.
  • Preparedness Hit: Tougher crises ahead.
  • Trust Rebuild: Key to getting buy-in.
  • Environmental Link: Weather worsens without vax.

These trends cast a shadow over long-term readiness, turning what were once reliable defenses into potential weak spots that could strain resources, overwhelm hospitals, and erode quality of life in a state already battling environmental risks. Reversing course means tackling the root skepticism head-on, maybe through community leaders sharing real stories or transparent campaigns highlighting vaccine wins without the mandate baggage, to foster a renewed sense of shared stake in health. It’s crucial work, because in Florida’s interconnected world of tourists, migrants, and nature’s whims, strong collective defenses aren’t optional; they’re the difference between manageable issues and full-blown crises.

man wearing medical mask and robe
Photo by JC Gellidon on Unsplash

10. Codifying ‘Medical Freedom’: Landmark Legislation

To etch the ‘medical freedom’ principle into stone as the federal COVID emergency faded, Governor DeSantis headed to Destin and signed a comprehensive four-bill package that established permanent barriers against health mandates, positioning Florida as the undisputed leader in a governance style that puts individual health decisions above institutional requirements. This wasn’t a single law but a suite: Senate Bill 252, hailed as the nation’s most sweeping, banned businesses and government from demanding proof of vaccination or post-infection recovery for access or jobs, and protected against firing or demotion solely over immunity status; House Bill 1387 outlawed “gain of function” research on potential pandemic pathogens; Senate Bill 1580 granted healthcare providers conscience-based opt-outs from services with whistleblower shields; and Senate Bill 238 safeguarded public records on personal health choices. DeSantis and Surgeon General Ladapo framed it as building on early pandemic actions to defend freedoms, rejecting “COVID theater and hysteria” for “truth and data.”

  • SB 252 Scope: No discrimination on status.
  • HB 1387: Bans risky lab stuff.
  • SB 1580: Doc opt-outs, protections.
  • SB 238: Guards health choice records.
  • Signing Context: Tied to “early wins.”
  • Leadership Quotes: Cut hysteria, chose data.

By making these protections everlasting, the legislation not only capped Florida’s pandemic response but launched a model for autonomy that could inspire other states, blending lessons from crisis into proactive safeguards while sparking discussions on the boundaries of personal liberty in interconnected societies. It’s a landmark that empowers choice in profound ways  from employment to medical ethics but also prompts vigilance on how it affects broader public health goals, ensuring the balance tips toward resilience without unintended gaps. This package will likely echo in courts, policies, and daily lives for years, defining DeSantis’s legacy in health governance.

11. Revisiting Florida’s Death Toll: A Comparative Analysis

Former President Trump’s Truth Social post calling Florida the “third WORST State in Deaths by Covid” grabbed headlines with its raw total   behind only California and Texas due to sheer population size but that metric alone warps fair comparisons across states without normalizing for scale or other factors. Shift to deaths per capita, and Florida lands at a more middling 13th nationally, far from catastrophic, and even outperforms New York in some views despite the latter’s heavy mask and lockdown regime. A deeper 2022 analysis standardized for age and comorbidities like diabetes or obesity crucial for Florida’s senior-laden, health-challenged populace and the state emerges with the 12th lowest death rate, with New York close at 15th, adding layers to the “lockdowns failed” storyline.

  • Total Rank: High raw, big pop.
  • Per Capita: Middle pack.
  • Adjusted Metric: Strong with tweaks.
  • NY Comparison: Did better adjusted.
  • Standardization Need: Demographics matter.
  • Political Context: Nuances claims.

This layered look at the death toll reveals why simplistic rankings fuel arguments but miss the mark, emphasizing that Florida’s outcomes, when contextualized, reflect a competent navigation of its inherent risks rather than outright failure or triumph. It challenges polarized narratives, urging focus on what specific actions early or late truly influenced results, and provides a template for evaluating crises beyond headlines.

12. The Battle for Transparency: COVID-19 Data and Public Accountability

Florida’s pandemic wasn’t confined to health policies; it ignited a major showdown over data access, with the DeSantis administration and Department of Health sued by the Florida Center for Government Accountability and a former lawmaker for allegedly burying detailed COVID stats amid the Delta surge. Accusations centered on switching death reporting from occurrence to report date to flatten late-week spikes artificially, scrapping the daily public dashboard for weekly summaries that obscured real-time trends, and initially claiming requested data was confidential or nonexistent. After lengthy court fights, appeals, and a upheld ruling, records surfaced in March 2023, with a settlement mandating three years of weekly breakdowns by county, age, gender, and race, plus $152,250 in plaintiff fees.

  • Lawsuit Parties: Watchdogs vs. health dept.
  • Reporting Switch: Hid peaks.
  • Dashboard End: Weekly, less info.
  • Settlement Terms: Years of data, pay up.
  • Quote on Motive: Fit “open” story.
  • Long-Term Mandate: Ongoing transparency.

The transparency battle exposed the pitfalls of controlling information to fit a narrative like “open for business” during peaks, but the victory for openness reinforced that accessible, accurate data is non-negotiable for public trust, informed decisions, and accountability in governance. It sets a precedent for crisis management, ensuring future scrutiny keeps leaders honest and empowers citizens with the facts they deserve.

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