Trust in the U.S. federal government stands at near historic lows, a persistent trend that has reshaped the American political landscape over the past half-century. Once a bedrock of civic society, public confidence has systematically eroded, transforming the relationship between citizens and their governing institutions. This profound shift is not merely a political talking point but a critical indicator of national cohesion and governmental efficacy.
Starting from a high point in 1958, when approximately three-quarters of Americans expressed trust in the federal government to consistently do the right thing, confidence began its descent during the turbulent 1960s with the escalation of the Vietnam War. The 1970s brought further decline, exacerbated by the Watergate scandal and worsening economic struggles. While brief recoveries occurred in the mid-1980s and the late 1990s amidst economic growth, and notably after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, these upticks proved fleeting.
Since 2007, the percentage of Americans who trust the government almost always or most of the time has consistently remained below 30%, a stark contrast to the historical norms. This analysis dives into the various facets of this trust deficit, exploring the data-driven realities behind America’s diminished faith in its federal institutions, the widening partisan gaps, and the varying levels of confidence across different branches of government and demographic groups. Our examination begins by unraveling the complex dynamics that define the current state of trust in the nation’s capital.
1. **A Nation Divided: The Deepening Partisan Rift in Federal Trust**The most striking feature of America’s trust crisis is the profound partisan chasm that has developed, profoundly influencing how citizens perceive their government. Since the 1970s, trust in government has been consistently higher among members of the party that controls the White House, known as the “in-party,” compared to those in the opposition, or “out-party.” This trend has not only persisted but has intensified dramatically over recent decades, with significant implications for overall public confidence.
The most striking feature of America’s trust crisis is the profound partisan chasm that has developed, profoundly influencing how citizens perceive their government. Since the 1970s, trust in government has been consistently higher among members of the party that controls the White House, known as the “in-party,” compared to those in the opposition, or “out-party.” This trend has not only persisted but has intensified dramatically over recent decades, with significant implications for overall public confidence.
Today’s figures underscore this stark reality: 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents express trust in the federal government, while only 11% of Republicans and Republican leaners share that sentiment. This disparity highlights a deeply polarized environment where political affiliation often dictates one’s faith in national institutions. Republicans, in particular, have shown greater reactivity to changes in political leadership, often expressing much lower levels of trust during Democratic presidencies, although shifts in attitudes during the transition from Donald Trump’s presidency to Joe Biden’s were roughly of the same magnitude for both parties.
The Gallup’s Sept. 2-16 Governance poll further illuminates these partisan shifts, revealing that Republican confidence across several trust measures has increased sharply over the past year. This includes a remarkable 83 percentage point jump for the executive branch, a 64-point rise for the government’s ability to handle international problems, and a 57-point increase for domestic problems. Conversely, Democrats’ trust tumbled by 56 to 78 points on these same three measures, and also declined significantly for the legislative branch. This clear divergence signals that trust is increasingly contingent on who holds power, rather than on the institutions themselves.
2. **Trust Across the Branches: A Look at Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Confidence**Americans’ trust in the federal government is not monolithic; it varies significantly across the three branches of government and their specific responsibilities. This nuanced view provides deeper insight into which parts of the federal apparatus command more or less public confidence. Overall, trust in these institutions remains mired near five-decade lows, painting a grim picture of collective faith in Washington.
Americans’ trust in the federal government is not monolithic; it varies significantly across the three branches of government and their specific responsibilities. This nuanced view provides deeper insight into which parts of the federal apparatus command more or less public confidence. Overall, trust in these institutions remains mired near five-decade lows, painting a grim picture of collective faith in Washington.
According to recent Gallup data, 45% of U.S. adults express a great deal or fair amount of trust in the federal government to handle international problems, while trust in handling domestic problems stands slightly lower at 38%. When dissecting the branches themselves, the judicial branch garners the highest level of confidence at 49%. In contrast, the legislative branch, often the locus of political gridlock, suffers from the lowest trust level, at just 32%.
Two decades ago, all five of these measures (international problems, domestic problems, and the three branches) showed trust levels above the majority threshold, indicating a substantial decline across the board. As recently as 2012, majorities still trusted all but the legislative branch. The current figures reflect a systemic erosion of confidence that spans the executive, legislative, and judicial functions, emphasizing that no part of the federal government has been immune to this pervasive skepticism, albeit to varying degrees.
3. **The Vanishing Confidence of the “Out-Party”: A Steep Decline in Opposition Trust**One of the most profound shifts in America’s trust landscape is the dramatic collapse of confidence among supporters of the party not holding the White House. This “out-party” phenomenon has become a primary driver of the overall decline in federal government trust, indicating a significant change in how political opposition engages with the institutions of governance.
One of the most profound shifts in America’s trust landscape is the dramatic collapse of confidence among supporters of the party not holding the White House. This “out-party” phenomenon has become a primary driver of the overall decline in federal government trust, indicating a significant change in how political opposition engages with the institutions of governance.
Gallup data spanning from the 1970s to the present reveals a precipitous drop in trust among these opposing party identifiers. In the 1970s, an average of 64% of U.S. adults identifying with the opposition party trusted the federal government to handle international problems. This figure has plummeted to just 20% this decade, with the most significant decline occurring since the 2000s. The situation for domestic problems is equally dire, with trust falling from 54% in the 1970s to 18% today among the president’s opponents.
Perhaps most starkly, trust in the executive branch among opponents of the incumbent president has dropped from 49% in the 1970s to a mere 7% in the current decade. This indicates an almost complete loss of faith in the very branch that carries out the president’s policies. Furthermore, the decline extends to other federal government branches, with trust in the legislative branch falling about 40 points and trust in the judicial branch experiencing a 13-point drop among the president’s political opposition since the 1970s. These figures underscore a fundamental shift where partisan opposition translates into near-total institutional distrust.
4. **Resilient Faith: How “In-Party” Supporters View the Federal Government**In stark contrast to the profound distrust among the “out-party,” supporters of the president’s party, or the “in-party,” largely maintain a much higher level of confidence in the federal government. This relative stability in “in-party” trust, especially when juxtaposed with the collapse of “out-party” confidence, highlights the deeply partisan nature of government trust in modern America.
In stark contrast to the profound distrust among the “out-party,” supporters of the president’s party, or the “in-party,” largely maintain a much higher level of confidence in the federal government. This relative stability in “in-party” trust, especially when juxtaposed with the collapse of “out-party” confidence, highlights the deeply partisan nature of government trust in modern America.
Today, the trust levels among supporters of the president’s party regarding the government’s ability to handle both domestic and international problems remain remarkably similar to what they were 50 years ago. For instance, trust in the federal government to handle domestic problems has averaged 71% this decade, almost identical to the 70% average seen in the 1970s. While trust in the government’s capacity to handle international problems has seen a slight dip, from 82% in the 1970s to 76% today, it still represents a robust majority.
Interestingly, trust in the executive branch among “in-party” supporters is actually higher now, at 87%, compared to 75% in the 1970s. It is worth noting that some 1970s polling data might have been suppressed by the Watergate era. This high level of trust among the president’s political allies has remained consistently strong in recent decades, ranging between 85% and 91% in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. However, this group does show less trust in the judicial and legislative branches today than in the past, with the recent decline in judicial trust reflecting lower ratings during Joe Biden’s presidency, particularly in response to prominent conservative rulings by a solidly conservative Supreme Court, such as the 2022 Dobbs decision.
5. **The Independent’s Dilemma: Navigating a Landscape of Declining Trust**Beyond the partisan fault lines, political independents—those who identify with neither the Democratic nor Republican party—also play a crucial role in the overall erosion of government trust. While their trust levels are generally higher than those of the “out-party,” they have experienced their own significant and steady decline, adding another layer to America’s deepening trust deficit.
Beyond the partisan fault lines, political independents—those who identify with neither the Democratic nor Republican party—also play a crucial role in the overall erosion of government trust. While their trust levels are generally higher than those of the “out-party,” they have experienced their own significant and steady decline, adding another layer to America’s deepening trust deficit.
Since the 1970s, the percentage of independents who express a great deal or fair amount of trust in the federal government has declined by more than 20 points across every branch or policy area. This widespread drop in confidence underscores that skepticism is not limited to partisan opposition but is also a pervasive sentiment among those who do not align firmly with either major party. Their average trust levels this decade typically fall within the 30% to 40% range, with the exception of the judicial branch, which garners 50% trust among this group.
While generally low in an absolute sense, independents’ trust levels in the executive branch and in the government’s ability to handle international and domestic problems are notably higher than those reported by the “out-party.” However, this wasn’t always the case. In the 1970s, independents and opposition-party supporters generally exhibited similar levels of trust, highlighting a divergence that has occurred over time. This ongoing decline among independents, coupled with the dramatic partisan shifts, contributes significantly to the long-term decrease in overall public trust in the federal government.
6. **Trust Beyond Washington: The Resilient Faith in State and Local Governments**While confidence in the federal government has plummeted, Americans demonstrate a markedly different sentiment towards their state and local governments. In a notable contrast to the skepticism directed at Washington, solid majorities of citizens continue to place their trust in these more proximate levels of governance. This divergence suggests that the factors eroding federal trust do not uniformly apply across all tiers of public administration.
While confidence in the federal government has plummeted, Americans demonstrate a markedly different sentiment towards their state and local governments. In a notable contrast to the skepticism directed at Washington, solid majorities of citizens continue to place their trust in these more proximate levels of governance. This divergence suggests that the factors eroding federal trust do not uniformly apply across all tiers of public administration.
Recent Gallup data highlights this distinction, revealing that 59% of Americans trust their state government to effectively handle state-level problems, and an even higher 65% express confidence in their local government for local issues. These figures are not fleeting; they align closely with averages observed over the past decade and, for local government, largely mirror trust levels from the 1970s. This enduring confidence underscores a fundamental difference in perception and engagement compared to the federal arena.
The underlying reasons for this higher trust are multifaceted. Unlike the federal sphere, many local governments operate on nonpartisan foundations, and they frequently address issues that are less politically charged or divisive. While state governments exhibit more visible partisanship, the sheer diversity of Republican-led and Democratic-led states across the U.S. tends to balance out partisan effects when aggregating national views. This creates an environment where partisan divides, while present, are significantly muted compared to the intense polarization seen at the federal level.
Party gaps in trust also remain much narrower for state and local governments. This year, 68% of Democrats, 62% of Republicans, and 53% of independents trust their state government, indicating a relatively cohesive level of confidence. For local government, the gap is slightly larger but still manageable, with 79% of Democrats, 61% of Republicans, and 62% of independents expressing trust. This suggests that despite national political tensions, citizens often perceive their local and state institutions as more responsive and trustworthy.
